HMMDP Update: Humbled But Not Ruined
Matt updates his reading list, evaluates everything he has ever known and continues to make us find robot gifs
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Every Wednesday @mattsaincome updates us on his incredible journey of turning $10,000 of his own money into $1,000,000 by any legal means possible. If you want Matt to take a look at one of your trading or investment ideas feel free to share.
Recap
I cut my snowflake position for a heavy loss. About -50%. Was that the right move? I’m not sure, but in the book I’m currently reading,
a statistical analysis of a bunch of trades showed those who cut their losers faster have the best returns.
I set a stop loss for $122, and I (roughly) stuck to it. I had a little leeway, then cut it.
Today the stock popped back up, but I still would have been down from my cost basis.
I also bought a bunch of energy stocks that immediately went down 5-10% and cut some of the ones I felt were weaker.
So yeah, the portfolio is basically in ruins. But I’m not!
I feel a mix of humbled, embarrassed, and dedicated. I’m dedicated to taking more lessons to heart, deepening my knowledge and skill set, and winning in the long run.
So let’s talk a little bit about the long run.
The New York Times once predicted it would take one to ten million years for humans to be able to build a flying machine capable of carrying humans.
Eight days later the Wright brothers had their first successful flight.
The message? Humans are often bad at predicting how near or far away big technological advances are. Sometimes they think it’s right around the corner, and other times they can’t fathom it. Today I want to talk about one that I feel is closer than it may appear.
I think AI is going to dramatically change the way we live and work.
I used to think AI would never be able to beat poker, but then it did. I used to think AI would never beat StarCraft 2, but then it did.
Recently the first employee of Uber, who I’m lucky enough to bounce ideas around with from time to time as he is an investor in OutVoice, asked me what I thought of GPT-3, an AI writer tech that creates articles and product descriptions for some publications.
I told him, much like what the New York Times said about human flying machines: don’t worry about it, it’s too far off.
But now I fear I may be wrong. Badly wrong. I think things are about to change very quickly and I am just like any other human who has a hard time judging the distance of upcoming technology advances.
So I want to position my money for the coming dystopian AI robot take over. But how do I?
Well. Here’s something I bought. I’m still researching it and would be happy to hear feedback from readers here.
$AI
The company is C3 AI. “C3 AI is a leading enterprise AI software provider for building enterprise-scale AI applications and accelerating digital transformation.”
As far as I can tell, the company helps people like Shell to ingest and make sense of large amounts of data (like valves on oil rigs) to make sense of it using AI. They help companies optimize via artificial intelligence.
I’m still researching this one, but the balance sheet is interesting. It looks like they have a billion dollars in the bank and only burn $150 million a year. If that’s right, then I have a company with enough runway to try to figure out this AI thing for the next 6.6 years. Maybe that’s enough time for the Wright Brothers to take flight?
At one point, the stock was worth $150. Now it’s worth $17. My thought: I begin to average in to a variety of AI stocks, this one included, with the bet being sometime in the next 6.6 years the future shows up sooner than everyone thought.
I bought this stock. For the long haul. Will do a bunch of research and update y’all soon.
Do you think $AI is a good idea? |
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Hint: This Chinese social media messaging and match-based company has been called a "magical tool to get laid."
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